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Gyöngyös vs Sajóbábony Vegyész — NB III - Northeast 2019

Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
FT
5 – 1
Sajóbábony Vegyész
Sajóbábony Vegyész
11/29/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 20Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gyöngyös58%
×Draw19%
Sajóbábony Vegyész23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyöngyös
2.48
Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.53

Gyöngyös creates 62% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gyöngyös
1.33
Sajóbábony Vegyész
0.89

allows per match

Gyöngyös
2.16
Sajóbábony Vegyész
3.63

finishing

Gyöngyös+0.00on par
Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyöngyös ↓

Sajóbábony Vegyész →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Gyöngyös or draw
77%
Gyöngyös or Sajóbábony Vegyész
81%
Draw or Sajóbábony Vegyész
42%

Winning margin

Gyöngyös wins by 2+
37%
Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gyöngyös 1+ goals
92%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
70%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
44%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals
78%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals
45%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
71%
Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyöngyös at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.16 · 43 matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyöngyös attack 1.33 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.48

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 0.89 + Gyöngyös defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gyöngyös scores more
58%
level
19%
Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more
23%

Gyöngyös at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gyöngyös will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Gyöngyös 5–1 Sajóbábony Vegyész

Gyöngyös beat Sajóbábony Vegyész 5-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep in Gyöngyös.