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Sajóbábony Vegyész vs Debrecen II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sajóbábony Vegyész
Sajóbábony Vegyész
FT
1 – 0
Debrecen II
Debrecen II
3/7/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 23Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész34%
×Draw23%
Debrecen II43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.49
Debrecen II
1.71

Debrecen II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 111 away

creates per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.21
Debrecen II
1.62

allows per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.79
Debrecen II
1.77

finishing

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par
Debrecen II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sajóbábony Vegyész ↓

Debrecen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sajóbábony Vegyész or draw
57%
Sajóbábony Vegyész or Debrecen II
77%
Draw or Debrecen II
66%

Winning margin

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+
16%
Debrecen II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals
77%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals
44%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals
19%
Debrecen II 1+ goals
82%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
51%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)
44%
Debrecen II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sajóbábony Vegyész at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Debrecen II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 1.21 + Debrecen II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.49

Debrecen II attack 1.62 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more
34%
level
23%
Debrecen II scores more
43%

Debrecen II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Sajóbábony Vegyész 1–0 Debrecen II

Sajóbábony Vegyész beat Debrecen II 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep in Sajóbábonyi.