Debrecen II 5–0 Sajóbábony Vegyész: Result & Stats

Debrecen II

FT

5 – 0

Sajóbábony Vegyész

8/16/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 4Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Debrecen II72%

×Draw15%

Sajóbábony Vegyész13%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Debrecen IIExpected goals in this matchSajóbábony Vegyész

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

1.14

Debrecen II

2.83

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.14

Debrecen II creates 148% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 19 away

2.03

creates per match

0.89

1.38

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

Debrecen II

2.03

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.89

allows per match

Debrecen II

1.38

Sajóbábony Vegyész

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Debrecen II+0.00on par

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debrecen II ↓

Sajóbábony Vegyész →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Debrecen II or draw

87%

Debrecen II or Sajóbábony Vegyész

85%

Draw or Sajóbábony Vegyész

28%

Winning margin

Debrecen II wins by 2+

51%

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Debrecen II 1+ goals

94%

Debrecen II 2+ goals

77%

Debrecen II 3+ goals

53%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

68%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

32%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Debrecen II (draw refunded)

85%

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debrecen II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debrecen II attack 2.03 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.83

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 0.89 + Debrecen II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Debrecen II scores more

72%

level

15%

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

13%

Debrecen II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff