Sajóbábony Vegyész 1–3 Balassagyarmat VSE

Sajóbábony Vegyész

FT

1 – 3

Balassagyarmat VSE

9/13/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 10Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész30%

×Draw26%

Balassagyarmat VSE44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sajóbábony VegyészExpected goals in this matchBalassagyarmat VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.50

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.20

Balassagyarmat VSE

1.50

Balassagyarmat VSE creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

1.21

creates per match

1.22

1.79

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.21

Balassagyarmat VSE

1.22

allows per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.79

Balassagyarmat VSE

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Balassagyarmat VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sajóbábony Vegyész ↓

Balassagyarmat VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sajóbábony Vegyész or draw

56%

Sajóbábony Vegyész or Balassagyarmat VSE

74%

Draw or Balassagyarmat VSE

70%

Winning margin

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

13%

Balassagyarmat VSE wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

70%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

34%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

12%

Balassagyarmat VSE 1+ goals

78%

Balassagyarmat VSE 2+ goals

44%

Balassagyarmat VSE 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

41%

Balassagyarmat VSE (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sajóbábony Vegyész at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Balassagyarmat VSE away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 1.21 + Balassagyarmat VSE defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Balassagyarmat VSE attack 1.22 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

30%

level

26%

Balassagyarmat VSE scores more

44%

Balassagyarmat VSE at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Balassagyarmat VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff