Balassagyarmat VSE 1–0 Sajóbábony Vegyész

Balassagyarmat VSE

FT

1 – 0

Sajóbábony Vegyész

4/14/2021

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 29Balassagyarmati Műfüves Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Balassagyarmat VSE72%

×Draw16%

Sajóbábony Vegyész11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Balassagyarmat VSEExpected goals in this matchSajóbábony Vegyész

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.89

Balassagyarmat VSE

2.50

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.89

Balassagyarmat VSE creates 181% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

1.36

creates per match

0.89

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

Balassagyarmat VSE

1.36

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.89

allows per match

Balassagyarmat VSE

0.89

Sajóbábony Vegyész

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balassagyarmat VSE+0.00on par

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balassagyarmat VSE ↓

Sajóbábony Vegyész →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Balassagyarmat VSE or draw

89%

Balassagyarmat VSE or Sajóbábony Vegyész

84%

Draw or Sajóbábony Vegyész

28%

Winning margin

Balassagyarmat VSE wins by 2+

50%

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Balassagyarmat VSE 1+ goals

92%

Balassagyarmat VSE 2+ goals

71%

Balassagyarmat VSE 3+ goals

45%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

59%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

22%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Balassagyarmat VSE (draw refunded)

86%

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balassagyarmat VSE at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balassagyarmat VSE attack 1.36 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.50

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 0.89 + Balassagyarmat VSE defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Balassagyarmat VSE scores more

72%

level

16%

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

11%

Balassagyarmat VSE at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Balassagyarmat VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff