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Saipa vs Chadormalu SC — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
5/2/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Saipa34%
×Draw33%
Chadormalu SC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
0.90
Chadormalu SC
0.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 31 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Chadormalu SC
1.16

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Chadormalu SC
0.61

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Chadormalu SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
67%
Saipa or Chadormalu SC
67%
Draw or Chadormalu SC
66%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
12%
Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
59%
Saipa 2+ goals
23%
Saipa 3+ goals
6%
Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
58%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
22%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
51%
Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.90

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Saipa scores more
34%
level
33%
Chadormalu SC scores more
33%

Saipa at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Saipa 1–2 Chadormalu SC

Chadormalu SC beat Saipa 2-1 in Azadegan League on May 2, 2024.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.