Chadormalu SC 2–1 Saipa: Result & Stats

Chadormalu SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Saipa

11/15/2023

Azadegan League · Round 12Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC42%

×Draw31%

Saipa27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chadormalu SCExpected goals in this matchSaipa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.82

Chadormalu SC

1.10

Saipa

0.82

Chadormalu SC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 84 away

1.29

creates per match

0.75

0.90

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Chadormalu SC

1.29

Saipa

0.75

allows per match

Chadormalu SC

0.90

Saipa

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Saipa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Saipa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw

73%

Chadormalu SC or Saipa

69%

Draw or Saipa

58%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

17%

Saipa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

67%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

30%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

10%

Saipa 1+ goals

56%

Saipa 2+ goals

20%

Saipa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

61%

Saipa (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Saipa away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Saipa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Saipa attack 0.75 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more

42%

level

31%

Saipa scores more

27%

Chadormalu SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff