Saint-Malo 4–2 Stade Plabennec: Result & Stats

Saint-Malo

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Stade Plabennec

E. Debreux 85'

G. Foulon 73'

Z. Fdaouch 62'

T. Iva 24'

R. Gerbeaud 90+4' (pen), 80' (pen)

2/7/2021

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade de Marville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Saint-Malo33%

×Draw22%

Stade Plabennec45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint-MaloExpected goals in this matchStade Plabennec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.93

Saint-Malo

1.65

Stade Plabennec

1.93

Stade Plabennec creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

2.25

1.60

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Saint-Malo

1.80

Stade Plabennec

2.25

allows per match

Saint-Malo

1.60

Stade Plabennec

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint-Malo+0.00on par

Stade Plabennec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Malo ↓

Stade Plabennec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Saint-Malo or draw

55%

Saint-Malo or Stade Plabennec

78%

Draw or Stade Plabennec

67%

Winning margin

Saint-Malo wins by 2+

16%

Stade Plabennec wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Saint-Malo 1+ goals

81%

Saint-Malo 2+ goals

49%

Saint-Malo 3+ goals

23%

Stade Plabennec 1+ goals

85%

Stade Plabennec 2+ goals

57%

Stade Plabennec 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Saint-Malo (draw refunded)

43%

Stade Plabennec (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Malo at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Stade Plabennec away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Malo attack 1.80 + Stade Plabennec defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Stade Plabennec attack 2.25 + Saint-Malo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saint-Malo scores more

33%

level

22%

Stade Plabennec scores more

45%

Stade Plabennec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stade Plabennec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

T. Iva

46'

J. Cangini← J. Curtius

58'

Z. Fdaouch← G. Danic

62'

Z. Fdaouch

66'

T. Guillou← N. Pellen

68'

G. Foulon← T. Iva

68'

A. Fekir← J. Diatta

73'

G. Foulon

76'

A. Broquet← T. Hamel

80'

R. GerbeaudPenalty

81'

F. Guillou← Y. Kujabi

81'

L. Guegan← T. Quéméré

85'

E. Debreux

90+4'

R. GerbeaudPenalty

Saint-Malo

Stade

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Iva

Yobé

Manager: F. Pujo

46'▲J. Cangini←▼J. Curtius

58'▲Z. Fdaouch←▼G. Danic

68'▲G. Foulon←▼T. Iva

76'▲A. Broquet←▼T. Hamel

Saint-Malo substitutes

CanginiFdaouchFoulonBroquetN'Djalkonog

Manager: B. Maligorne

66'▲T. Guillou←▼N. Pellen

68'▲A. Fekir←▼J. Diatta

81'▲F. Guillou←▼Y. Kujabi

81'▲L. Guegan←▼T. Quéméré

Stade Plabennec substitutes

GuillouFekirGuillouGueganLaurent