Saint-Malo 3–1 Granville: Result & Stats

Saint-Malo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Granville

J. Burban 90' (pen)

D. Bangoura 38'

L. Capoue 28'

K. Silvestre 90'

10/17/2025

League #67 · Group A - 8Stade de Marville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Saint-Malo63%

×Draw22%

Granville15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint-MaloExpected goals in this matchGranville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.73

Saint-Malo

1.80

Granville

0.73

Saint-Malo creates 147% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

0.86

0.60

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Saint-Malo

1.60

Granville

0.86

allows per match

Saint-Malo

0.60

Granville

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint-Malo+0.00on par

Granville+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Malo ↓

Granville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Saint-Malo or draw

85%

Saint-Malo or Granville

78%

Draw or Granville

37%

Winning margin

Saint-Malo wins by 2+

37%

Granville wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Saint-Malo 1+ goals

83%

Saint-Malo 2+ goals

54%

Saint-Malo 3+ goals

27%

Granville 1+ goals

52%

Granville 2+ goals

17%

Granville 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Saint-Malo (draw refunded)

81%

Granville (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Malo at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Granville away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Malo attack 1.60 + Granville defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Granville attack 0.86 + Saint-Malo defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Saint-Malo scores more

63%

level

22%

Granville scores more

15%

Saint-Malo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Saint-Malo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

L. Capoue

38'

D. Bangoura

90'

J. BurbanPenalty

90'

K. Silvestre

Saint-Malo

Granville

Manager: G. Corbin

Manager: M. Jouan