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Granville vs Saint-Malo — League #67 2026

Granville
Granville
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Saint-Malo
Saint-Malo
E. Misse 69'
J. Burban 85'
3/22/2026League #67League #67 · Group A - 22Stade Louis-Dior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Granville25%
×Draw27%
Saint-Malo49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granville
0.93
Saint-Malo
1.43

Saint-Malo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Granville
0.86
Saint-Malo
2.00

allows per match

Granville
0.86
Saint-Malo
1.00

finishing

Granville+0.00on par
Saint-Malo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granville ↓

Saint-Malo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Granville or draw
51%
Granville or Saint-Malo
73%
Draw or Saint-Malo
75%

Winning margin

Granville wins by 2+
8%
Saint-Malo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Granville 1+ goals
61%
Granville 2+ goals
24%
Granville 3+ goals
7%
Saint-Malo 1+ goals
76%
Saint-Malo 2+ goals
42%
Saint-Malo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Granville (draw refunded)
34%
Saint-Malo (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granville at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Saint-Malo away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granville attack 0.86 + Saint-Malo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Saint-Malo attack 2.00 + Granville defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Granville scores more
25%
level
27%
Saint-Malo scores more
49%

Saint-Malo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Saint-Malo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
E. Misse
85'
J. Burban
Granville
Saint-Malo
M. Jouan
Manager: M. Jouan
G. Corbin
Manager: G. Corbin

League #67: Granville 1–1 Saint-Malo

Granville and Saint-Malo drew 1-1 in League #67 on March 22, 2026.

Goals: E. Misse (69'), J. Burban (85').

The match was played at Stade Louis-Dior in Granville.