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Saint-Luc vs AS New Soger — Ligue 1 2019

Saint-Luc
Saint-Luc
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AS New Soger
AS New Soger
3/1/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saint-Luc54%
×Draw32%
AS New Soger14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint-Luc
1.14
AS New Soger
0.43

Saint-Luc creates 165% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Saint-Luc
0.87
AS New Soger
0.27

allows per match

Saint-Luc
0.60
AS New Soger
1.40

finishing

Saint-Luc+0.00on par
AS New Soger+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Luc ↓

AS New Soger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Saint-Luc or draw
86%
Saint-Luc or AS New Soger
68%
Draw or AS New Soger
46%

Winning margin

Saint-Luc wins by 2+
24%
AS New Soger wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Saint-Luc 1+ goals
68%
Saint-Luc 2+ goals
32%
Saint-Luc 3+ goals
11%
AS New Soger 1+ goals
35%
AS New Soger 2+ goals
7%
AS New Soger 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Saint-Luc (draw refunded)
79%
AS New Soger (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Luc at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

AS New Soger away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Luc attack 0.87 + AS New Soger defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

AS New Soger attack 0.27 + Saint-Luc defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Saint-Luc scores more
54%
level
32%
AS New Soger scores more
14%

Saint-Luc at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Saint-Luc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint-Luc vs AS New Soger

Saint-Luc beat AS New Soger 1-0 in Ligue 1 on March 1, 2026.