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AS New Soger vs Saint-Luc — Ligue 1 2019

AS New Soger
AS New Soger
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Saint-Luc
Saint-Luc
11/25/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

AS New Soger48%
×Draw27%
Saint-Luc25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS New Soger
1.42
Saint-Luc
0.94

AS New Soger creates 51% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

AS New Soger
1.57
Saint-Luc
0.67

allows per match

AS New Soger
1.21
Saint-Luc
1.27

finishing

AS New Soger+0.00on par
Saint-Luc+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS New Soger ↓

Saint-Luc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AS New Soger or draw
75%
AS New Soger or Saint-Luc
73%
Draw or Saint-Luc
52%

Winning margin

AS New Soger wins by 2+
24%
Saint-Luc wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AS New Soger 1+ goals
76%
AS New Soger 2+ goals
41%
AS New Soger 3+ goals
17%
Saint-Luc 1+ goals
61%
Saint-Luc 2+ goals
24%
Saint-Luc 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS New Soger (draw refunded)
66%
Saint-Luc (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS New Soger at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Saint-Luc away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS New Soger attack 1.57 + Saint-Luc defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Saint-Luc attack 0.67 + AS New Soger defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AS New Soger scores more
48%
level
27%
Saint-Luc scores more
25%

AS New Soger at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AS New Soger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: AS New Soger 1–2 Saint-Luc

Saint-Luc beat AS New Soger 2-1 in Ligue 1 on November 25, 2025.