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Saint Louis vs Orange County SC — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Orange County SC
Orange County SC
7/22/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis46%
×Draw25%
Orange County SC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.54
Orange County SC
1.17

Saint Louis creates 32% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 138 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Orange County SC
1.35

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Orange County SC
1.53

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Orange County SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Orange County SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
71%
Saint Louis or Orange County SC
75%
Draw or Orange County SC
54%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
23%
Orange County SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
79%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
45%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
20%
Orange County SC 1+ goals
69%
Orange County SC 2+ goals
33%
Orange County SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
61%
Orange County SC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Orange County SC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Orange County SC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Orange County SC attack 1.35 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Saint Louis scores more
46%
level
25%
Orange County SC scores more
29%

Saint Louis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Saint Louis 2–2 Orange County SC

Saint Louis and Orange County SC drew 2-2 in USL Championship on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri).