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Orange County SC vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

Orange County SC
Orange County SCadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
10/21/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Conference - Quarter-finalsChampions Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Orange County SC50%
×Draw25%
Saint Louis24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orange County SC
1.56
Saint Louis
1.00

Orange County SC creates 56% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 45 away

creates per match

Orange County SC
1.60
Saint Louis
0.93

allows per match

Orange County SC
1.07
Saint Louis
1.51

finishing

Orange County SC+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Orange County SC or draw
76%
Orange County SC or Saint Louis
75%
Draw or Saint Louis
50%

Winning margin

Orange County SC wins by 2+
26%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orange County SC 1+ goals
79%
Orange County SC 2+ goals
46%
Orange County SC 3+ goals
21%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
63%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
26%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC (draw refunded)
67%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC attack 1.60 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.56

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Orange County SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Orange County SC scores more
50%
level
25%
Saint Louis scores more
24%

Orange County SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Orange County SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Orange County SC 4–0 Saint Louis

Orange County SC beat Saint Louis 4-0 in USL Championship on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Champions Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California).