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Saint Louis vs North Carolina — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
North Carolina
North Carolina
6/23/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 28World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis45%
×Draw26%
North Carolina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.47
North Carolina
1.11

Saint Louis creates 32% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 74 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
North Carolina
1.24

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
North Carolina
1.39

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
North Carolina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

North Carolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
71%
Saint Louis or North Carolina
74%
Draw or North Carolina
55%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
22%
North Carolina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
77%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
43%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
18%
North Carolina 1+ goals
67%
North Carolina 2+ goals
30%
North Carolina 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
61%
North Carolina (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

North Carolina away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + North Carolina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

North Carolina attack 1.24 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saint Louis scores more
45%
level
26%
North Carolina scores more
29%

Saint Louis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saint Louis 2 – 2 North Carolina

Saint Louis and North Carolina drew 2-2 in USL Championship on June 23, 2019.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri).