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North Carolina vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

North Carolina
North Carolina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
10/19/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 63Sahlen's Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

North Carolina51%
×Draw24%
Saint Louis25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina
1.67
Saint Louis
1.08

North Carolina creates 55% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 45 away

creates per match

North Carolina
1.83
Saint Louis
0.93

allows per match

North Carolina
1.23
Saint Louis
1.51

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw
75%
North Carolina or Saint Louis
76%
Draw or Saint Louis
49%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+
27%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals
81%
North Carolina 2+ goals
50%
North Carolina 3+ goals
23%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
66%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
29%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)
67%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 1.83 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.67

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + North Carolina defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

North Carolina scores more
51%
level
24%
Saint Louis scores more
25%

North Carolina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Carolina vs Saint Louis

North Carolina beat Saint Louis 1-0 in USL Championship on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Sahlen's Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina).