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Saint Louis vs Kaw Valley — USL League Two 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
CANC
19:00
Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
7/17/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 76Tony Glavin Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saint Louis50%
×Draw22%
Kaw Valley27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.90
Kaw Valley
1.35

Saint Louis creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
2.29
Kaw Valley
1.28

allows per match

Saint Louis
1.43
Kaw Valley
1.50

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Kaw Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Kaw Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
73%
Saint Louis or Kaw Valley
78%
Draw or Kaw Valley
50%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
28%
Kaw Valley wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
85%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
56%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
29%
Kaw Valley 1+ goals
74%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
39%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
65%
Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Kaw Valley away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 2.29 + Kaw Valley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kaw Valley attack 1.28 + Saint Louis defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Saint Louis scores more
50%
level
22%
Kaw Valley scores more
27%

Saint Louis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saint Louis face Kaw Valley (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Saint Louis hosting Kaw Valley. Match starts July 17, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Saint Louis host Kaw Valley at Tony Glavin Soccer Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.