Kaw Valley 1–3 Saint Louis: Result & Stats

Kaw Valley

FT

1 – 3

Saint Louis

5/21/2022

USL League Two · Round 8Rock Chalk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kaw Valley34%

×Draw20%

Saint Louis46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaw ValleyExpected goals in this matchSaint Louis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

2.25

Kaw Valley

1.94

Saint Louis

2.25

Saint Louis creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

2.08

creates per match

2.20

2.31

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Kaw Valley

2.08

Saint Louis

2.20

allows per match

Kaw Valley

2.31

Saint Louis

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaw Valley+0.00on par

Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaw Valley ↓

Saint Louis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Kaw Valley or draw

54%

Kaw Valley or Saint Louis

80%

Draw or Saint Louis

66%

Winning margin

Kaw Valley wins by 2+

18%

Saint Louis wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Kaw Valley 1+ goals

86%

Kaw Valley 2+ goals

58%

Kaw Valley 3+ goals

30%

Saint Louis 1+ goals

89%

Saint Louis 2+ goals

65%

Saint Louis 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Kaw Valley (draw refunded)

43%

Saint Louis (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaw Valley at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaw Valley attack 2.08 + Saint Louis defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.94

Saint Louis attack 2.20 + Kaw Valley defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kaw Valley scores more

34%

level

20%

Saint Louis scores more

46%

Saint Louis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff