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Saint Louis vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
10/3/2020USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 28World Wide Technology Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis49%
×Draw25%
Indy Eleven26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.56
Indy Eleven
1.05

Saint Louis creates 49% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 131 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Indy Eleven
1.13

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
74%
Saint Louis or Indy Eleven
75%
Draw or Indy Eleven
51%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
25%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
79%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
46%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
21%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
65%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
28%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
66%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.58 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Indy Eleven attack 1.13 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Saint Louis scores more
49%
level
25%
Indy Eleven scores more
26%

Saint Louis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Louis vs Indy Eleven

Saint Louis beat Indy Eleven 2-1 in USL Championship on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park in St. Louis, Missouri.