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Indy Eleven vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
8/18/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 43Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Indy Eleven48%
×Draw26%
Saint Louis26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.50
Saint Louis
1.03

Indy Eleven creates 46% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 45 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Saint Louis
0.93

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Saint Louis
1.51

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
74%
Indy Eleven or Saint Louis
74%
Draw or Saint Louis
52%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
24%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
78%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
44%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
19%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
64%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
28%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
65%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
48%
level
26%
Saint Louis scores more
26%

Indy Eleven at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Indy Eleven vs Saint Louis

Indy Eleven beat Saint Louis 2-1 in USL Championship on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana).