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Saint Louis vs Hartford Athletic — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
9/2/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 47World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis52%
×Draw24%
Hartford Athletic24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.74
Hartford Athletic
1.11

Saint Louis creates 57% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 113 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Hartford Athletic
1.25

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Hartford Athletic
1.93

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Hartford Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Hartford Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
76%
Saint Louis or Hartford Athletic
76%
Draw or Hartford Athletic
48%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
29%
Hartford Athletic wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
82%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
52%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
25%
Hartford Athletic 1+ goals
67%
Hartford Athletic 2+ goals
30%
Hartford Athletic 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
68%
Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Hartford Athletic away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.93 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.74

Hartford Athletic attack 1.25 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Saint Louis scores more
52%
level
24%
Hartford Athletic scores more
24%

Saint Louis at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Louis vs Hartford Athletic

Saint Louis beat Hartford Athletic 3-2 in USL Championship on September 2, 2019.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri).