Hartford Athletic 0–1 Saint Louis: Result & Stats

Hartford Athletic

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Saint Louis

10/10/2020

USL Championship · Conference - Quarter-finalsDillon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hartford Athletic44%

×Draw25%

Saint Louis31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hartford AthleticExpected goals in this matchSaint Louis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.22

Hartford Athletic

1.51

Saint Louis

1.22

Hartford Athletic creates 24% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 45 away

1.51

creates per match

0.93

1.50

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Hartford Athletic

1.51

Saint Louis

0.93

allows per match

Hartford Athletic

1.50

Saint Louis

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartford Athletic+0.00on par

Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartford Athletic ↓

Saint Louis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hartford Athletic or draw

69%

Hartford Athletic or Saint Louis

75%

Draw or Saint Louis

56%

Winning margin

Hartford Athletic wins by 2+

22%

Saint Louis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hartford Athletic 1+ goals

78%

Hartford Athletic 2+ goals

44%

Hartford Athletic 3+ goals

19%

Saint Louis 1+ goals

70%

Saint Louis 2+ goals

34%

Saint Louis 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)

59%

Saint Louis (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartford Athletic at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.50 · 116 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartford Athletic attack 1.51 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.51

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hartford Athletic scores more

44%

level

25%

Saint Louis scores more

31%

Hartford Athletic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hartford Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff