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Saint Louis vs Chicago Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
7 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Chicago Dutch Lions
Chicago Dutch Lions
6/4/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 23Tony Glavin Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saint Louis69%
×Draw16%
Chicago Dutch Lions15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
2.88
Chicago Dutch Lions
1.31

Saint Louis creates 120% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 30 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
2.29
Chicago Dutch Lions
1.20

allows per match

Saint Louis
1.43
Chicago Dutch Lions
3.47

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Chicago Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Chicago Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
85%
Saint Louis or Chicago Dutch Lions
84%
Draw or Chicago Dutch Lions
31%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
49%
Chicago Dutch Lions wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
94%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
78%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
54%
Chicago Dutch Lions 1+ goals
73%
Chicago Dutch Lions 2+ goals
38%
Chicago Dutch Lions 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
82%
Chicago Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Chicago Dutch Lions away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 2.29 + Chicago Dutch Lions defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.88

Chicago Dutch Lions attack 1.20 + Saint Louis defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Saint Louis scores more
69%
level
16%
Chicago Dutch Lions scores more
15%

Saint Louis at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Louis vs Chicago Dutch Lions

Saint Louis beat Chicago Dutch Lions 7-2 in USL League Two on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Tony Glavin Soccer Complex in Cottleville, Missouri.