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Chicago Dutch Lions vs Saint Louis — USL League Two 2018

Chicago Dutch Lions
Chicago Dutch Lions
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
6/15/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 36Joe Bean Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chicago Dutch Lions18%
×Draw17%
Saint Louis64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Dutch Lions
1.45
Saint Louis
2.77

Saint Louis creates 91% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 10 away

creates per match

Chicago Dutch Lions
1.10
Saint Louis
2.20

allows per match

Chicago Dutch Lions
3.33
Saint Louis
1.80

finishing

Chicago Dutch Lions+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Dutch Lions ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Chicago Dutch Lions or draw
36%
Chicago Dutch Lions or Saint Louis
83%
Draw or Saint Louis
82%

Winning margin

Chicago Dutch Lions wins by 2+
8%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Chicago Dutch Lions 1+ goals
77%
Chicago Dutch Lions 2+ goals
42%
Chicago Dutch Lions 3+ goals
18%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
94%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
76%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Chicago Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
22%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Dutch Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 3.33 · 30 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Dutch Lions attack 1.10 + Saint Louis defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.45

Saint Louis attack 2.20 + Chicago Dutch Lions defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Chicago Dutch Lions scores more
18%
level
17%
Saint Louis scores more
64%

Saint Louis at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chicago Dutch Lions vs Saint Louis

Saint Louis beat Chicago Dutch Lions 3-2 in USL League Two on June 15, 2022.

The match was played at Joe Bean Stadium in Wheaton, Illinois.