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Saint Louis vs Chicago City — USL League Two 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chicago City
Chicago City
5/28/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 16Tony Glavin Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saint Louis45%
×Draw21%
Chicago City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
2.12
Chicago City
1.82

Saint Louis creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
2.29
Chicago City
2.21

allows per match

Saint Louis
1.43
Chicago City
1.95

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Chicago City+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Chicago City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
66%
Saint Louis or Chicago City
79%
Draw or Chicago City
55%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
26%
Chicago City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
88%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
62%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
35%
Chicago City 1+ goals
84%
Chicago City 2+ goals
54%
Chicago City 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
57%
Chicago City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Chicago City away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 2.29 + Chicago City defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.12

Chicago City attack 2.21 + Saint Louis defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saint Louis scores more
45%
level
21%
Chicago City scores more
34%

Saint Louis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saint Louis 1 – 1 Chicago City

Saint Louis and Chicago City drew 1-1 in USL League Two on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Tony Glavin Soccer Complex in Cottleville, Missouri.