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Chicago City vs Saint Louis — USL League Two 2018

Chicago City
Chicago City
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
7/14/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 71ITW Speer Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chicago City40%
×Draw21%
Saint Louis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago City
2.02
Saint Louis
1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Chicago City
2.24
Saint Louis
2.20

allows per match

Chicago City
1.76
Saint Louis
1.80

finishing

Chicago City+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago City ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Chicago City or draw
61%
Chicago City or Saint Louis
79%
Draw or Saint Louis
60%

Winning margin

Chicago City wins by 2+
22%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chicago City 1+ goals
87%
Chicago City 2+ goals
60%
Chicago City 3+ goals
33%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
86%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
59%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Chicago City (draw refunded)
51%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago City at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago City attack 2.24 + Saint Louis defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

Saint Louis attack 2.20 + Chicago City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chicago City scores more
40%
level
21%
Saint Louis scores more
39%

Chicago City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chicago City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Chicago City 3–3 Saint Louis

Chicago City and Saint Louis drew 3-3 in USL League Two on July 14, 2022.

The match was played at ITW Speer Academy in Chicago, Illinois.