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Saint Louis vs Birmingham Legion — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
4/14/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 10World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis46%
×Draw25%
Birmingham Legion29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.56
Birmingham Legion
1.19

Saint Louis creates 31% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 119 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Birmingham Legion
1.39

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Birmingham Legion
1.57

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Birmingham Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
71%
Saint Louis or Birmingham Legion
75%
Draw or Birmingham Legion
54%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
23%
Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
79%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
46%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
21%
Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
70%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
33%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
61%
Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Birmingham Legion away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Birmingham Legion attack 1.39 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Saint Louis scores more
46%
level
25%
Birmingham Legion scores more
29%

Saint Louis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Louis vs Birmingham Legion

Birmingham Legion beat Saint Louis 3-2 in USL Championship on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri).