Birmingham Legion 0–2 Saint Louis: Result & Stats

Birmingham Legion

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Saint Louis

9/14/2019

USL Championship · Round 50BBVA Field (Birmingham, Alabama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Birmingham Legion45%

×Draw27%

Saint Louis28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Birmingham LegionExpected goals in this matchSaint Louis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.07

Birmingham Legion

1.42

Saint Louis

1.07

Birmingham Legion creates 33% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 45 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

1.21

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Birmingham Legion

1.33

Saint Louis

0.93

allows per match

Birmingham Legion

1.21

Saint Louis

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

Saint Louis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw

72%

Birmingham Legion or Saint Louis

73%

Draw or Saint Louis

55%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+

22%

Saint Louis wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals

76%

Birmingham Legion 2+ goals

41%

Birmingham Legion 3+ goals

17%

Saint Louis 1+ goals

66%

Saint Louis 2+ goals

29%

Saint Louis 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)

61%

Saint Louis (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more

45%

level

27%

Saint Louis scores more

28%

Birmingham Legion at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff