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Saint-Étienne W vs Paris Saint Germain W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Saint-Étienne W
Saint-Étienne W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
11/23/2025Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 8Stade Salif Keita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Saint-Étienne W12%
×Draw18%
Paris Saint Germain W70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint-Étienne W
0.87
Paris Saint Germain W
2.34

Paris Saint Germain W creates 169% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 86 away

creates per match

Saint-Étienne W
0.93
Paris Saint Germain W
2.62

allows per match

Saint-Étienne W
2.07
Paris Saint Germain W
0.81

finishing

Saint-Étienne W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Étienne W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Saint-Étienne W or draw
30%
Saint-Étienne W or Paris Saint Germain W
82%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
88%

Winning margin

Saint-Étienne W wins by 2+
4%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Saint-Étienne W 1+ goals
58%
Saint-Étienne W 2+ goals
22%
Saint-Étienne W 3+ goals
6%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
90%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
67%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Saint-Étienne W (draw refunded)
15%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Étienne W at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 44 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.62, concedes 0.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Étienne W attack 0.93 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.87

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.62 + Saint-Étienne W defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Saint-Étienne W scores more
12%
level
18%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
70%

Paris Saint Germain W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Saint-Étienne W 1–4 Paris Saint Germain W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Saint-Étienne W 4-1 in Feminine Division 1 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Salif Keita.