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Paris Saint Germain W vs Saint-Étienne W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saint-Étienne W
Saint-Étienne W
4/22/2026Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 20Paris Saint-Germain Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W84%
×Draw11%
Saint-Étienne W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain W
2.89
Saint-Étienne W
0.59

Paris Saint Germain W creates 390% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 44 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W
3.17
Saint-Étienne W
0.77

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W
0.42
Saint-Étienne W
2.61

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par
Saint-Étienne W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Saint-Étienne W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw
95%
Paris Saint Germain W or Saint-Étienne W
89%
Draw or Saint-Étienne W
16%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
64%
Saint-Étienne W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
94%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
78%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
54%
Saint-Étienne W 1+ goals
45%
Saint-Étienne W 2+ goals
12%
Saint-Étienne W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
94%
Saint-Étienne W (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.42 · 84 matches

Saint-Étienne W away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 3.17 + Saint-Étienne W defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.89

Saint-Étienne W attack 0.77 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more
84%
level
11%
Saint-Étienne W scores more
5%

Paris Saint Germain W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paris Saint Germain W vs Saint-Étienne W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Saint-Étienne W 2-0 in Feminine Division 1 on April 22, 2026.

The match was played at Paris Saint-Germain Training Center in Poissy.