Saint Etienne 4–0 Rodez: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Saint Etienne

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rodez

Z. Davitashvili 79'

I. Cardona 56'

M. Jaber 47'

J. Duffus 27'

8/16/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Saint Etienne48%

×Draw25%

Rodez26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchRodez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.08

Saint Etienne

1.55

Rodez

1.08

Saint Etienne creates 44% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 124 away

1.77

creates per match

1.11

1.05

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Saint Etienne

1.77

Rodez

1.11

allows per match

Saint Etienne

1.05

Rodez

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Rodez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

74%

Saint Etienne or Rodez

75%

Draw or Rodez

52%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

25%

Rodez wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

79%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

46%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

20%

Rodez 1+ goals

66%

Rodez 2+ goals

29%

Rodez 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

65%

Rodez (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Rodez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.77 + Rodez defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rodez attack 1.11 + Saint Etienne defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

48%

level

25%

Rodez scores more

26%

Saint Etienne at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Jaber

Saint Etienne · M

8.3

Match Events

5'

Ebenezer Annan

27'

J. Duffus↳ J. Ferreira

38'

Aimen Moueffek

41'

Derek Mazou-Sacko

46'

I. Cardona← J. Duffus

47'

M. Jaber

56'

I. Cardona↳ A. Boakye

59'

D. Appiah← J. Ferreira

64'

L. Gadegbeku← A. Moueffek

64'

K. Nagera← M. Baaloudj

65'

R. Ponti← E. Jean-Lambert

77'

Loni Laurent

79'

Z. Davitashvili↳ A. Boakye

81'

C. Jolibois← L. Laurent

81'

M. Achi← I. Balde

81'

O. Joly← A. Trouillet

82'

B. Old← A. Boakye

83'

L. Stassin← Z. Davitashvili

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaintRodez

Overview

70%Possession30%

18Total Shots5

5Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots5

6On Target1

8Off Target3

4Blocked1

14Inside Box4

4Outside Box1

Passing

70%Possession30%

666Total Passes263

588Accurate Passes199

88%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4