Rodez 2–1 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Rodez

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Saint Etienne

I. Balde 54', 17'

I. Cardona 89'

5/2/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade Paul-Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rodez37%

×Draw27%

Saint Etienne36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RodezExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Rodez

1.27

Saint Etienne

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 55 away

1.32

creates per match

1.33

1.17

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Rodez

1.32

Saint Etienne

1.33

allows per match

Rodez

1.17

Saint Etienne

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rodez or draw

64%

Rodez or Saint Etienne

73%

Draw or Saint Etienne

63%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+

16%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals

72%

Rodez 2+ goals

36%

Rodez 3+ goals

14%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

71%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

36%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)

51%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.32 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rodez scores more

37%

level

27%

Saint Etienne scores more

36%

Rodez at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

I. Balde

Rodez · F

8.0

Match Events

17'

I. Balde↳ A. Trouillet

46'

I. Cardona← I. Miladinovic

54'

I. Balde

55'

Ibrahima Baldé

58'

L. Gadegbeku← K. Pedro

69'

Augustine Boakye

72'

O. Joly← J. Mendes

72'

W. Younoussa← M. Saka

73'

R. Ponti← E. Jean-Lambert

73'

E. Annan← J. Duffus

79'

K. Nagera← I. Balde

79'

S. Benchamma← A. Trouillet

89'

I. Cardona↳ A. Boakye

90'

Octave Joly

90+4'

Luan Gadegbeku

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RodezSaint

Overview

41%Possession59%

17Total Shots10

2Corners7

11Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots10

5On Target5

8Off Target3

4Blocked2

10Inside Box7

7Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

345Total Passes505

279Accurate Passes442

81%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides4