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Saint Etienne vs PAU — Ligue 2 2018

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
PAU
PAU
11/25/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Saint Etienne52%
×Draw24%
PAU24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.71
PAU
1.09

Saint Etienne creates 57% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 110 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.77
PAU
1.14

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.05
PAU
1.65

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

PAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
76%
Saint Etienne or PAU
76%
Draw or PAU
48%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
28%
PAU wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
82%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
51%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
24%
PAU 1+ goals
66%
PAU 2+ goals
30%
PAU 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
68%
PAU (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

PAU away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.77 + PAU defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

PAU attack 1.14 + Saint Etienne defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
52%
level
24%
PAU scores more
24%

Saint Etienne at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs PAU

PAU beat Saint Etienne 2-1 in Ligue 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.