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PAU vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
1/23/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

PAU36%
×Draw27%
Saint Etienne37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.27
Saint Etienne
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 55 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Saint Etienne
1.33

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Saint Etienne
1.22

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Saint Etienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

PAU or draw
63%
PAU or Saint Etienne
73%
Draw or Saint Etienne
64%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
16%
Saint Etienne wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
72%
PAU 2+ goals
36%
PAU 3+ goals
14%
Saint Etienne 1+ goals
73%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
37%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
49%
Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

PAU scores more
36%
level
27%
Saint Etienne scores more
37%

Saint Etienne at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: PAU 0–1 Saint Etienne

Saint Etienne beat PAU 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Nouste Camp in Bizanos.