Saint Etienne 1–1 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Saint Etienne

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Oleksandria

Gabriel Silva 8'

Gabriel Silva 14' (OG)

10/24/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saint Etienne48%

×Draw28%

Oleksandria23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.83

Saint Etienne

1.33

Oleksandria

0.83

Saint Etienne creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Saint Etienne

0.67

Oleksandria

1.00

allows per match

Saint Etienne

0.67

Oleksandria

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Oleksandria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

77%

Saint Etienne or Oleksandria

72%

Draw or Oleksandria

52%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

23%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

74%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

38%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

15%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

56%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

20%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

67%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 0.67 + Oleksandria defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Oleksandria attack 1.00 + Saint Etienne defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

48%

level

28%

Oleksandria scores more

23%

Saint Etienne at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Grechyshkin

Oleksandria · M

7.4

Match Events

8'

Gabriel Silva↳ R. Hamouma

14'

Gabriel SilvaOwn goal

40'

Denys Miroshnichenko

46'

R. Boudebouz← J. Aholou

49'

Gabriel Silva

63'

C. Abi← A. Nordin

74'

D. Bouanga← R. Berič

80'

D. Shastal← V. Luchkevych

83'

O. Dovgyi← K. Kovalets

90'

Dmytro Shastal

90+3'

V. Baboglo← M. Tretyakov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaintOleksandria

Overview

66%Possession34%

13Total Shots4

4Corners1

14Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots4

3On Target1

6Off Target3

4Blocked0

9Inside Box4

4Outside Box0

Passing

66%Possession34%

585Total Passes298

497Accurate Passes205

85%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

UEFA Europa League: Saint Etienne 1–1 Oleksandria

Saint Etienne and Oleksandria drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa League on October 24, 2019.

Goals: Gabriel Silva (8', 14' o.g.).

Saint Etienne controlled possession (66%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.

Saint Etienne vs Oleksandria — UEFA Europa League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa League: Saint Etienne 1–1 Oleksandria