Oleksandria 2–2 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats

Oleksandria

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Saint Etienne

M. Zaderaka 90+1'

D. Bezborodko 84'

M. Camara 72'

W. Khazri 24' (pen)

11/7/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 4Arena L'viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oleksandria41%

×Draw25%

Saint Etienne34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleksandriaExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.33

Oleksandria

1.50

Saint Etienne

1.33

Oleksandria creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Oleksandria

1.00

Saint Etienne

1.33

allows per match

Oleksandria

1.33

Saint Etienne

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw

66%

Oleksandria or Saint Etienne

75%

Draw or Saint Etienne

59%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+

20%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals

78%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

44%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

19%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

74%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

38%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

55%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.00 + Saint Etienne defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Oleksandria defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oleksandria scores more

41%

level

25%

Saint Etienne scores more

34%

Oleksandria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

W. Khazri

Saint Etienne · F

7.6

Match Events

23'

Yury Pankiv

24'

W. KhazriPenalty

43'

Wesley Fofana

46'

D. Bezborodko← D. Shastal

55'

M. Camara← R. Berič

68'

Zaydou Youssouf

72'

Gabriel Silva← W. Khazri

72'

M. Camara↳ D. Bouanga

78'

M. Zaderaka← V. Luchkevych

84'

T. Stetskov← M. Tretyakov

84'

D. Bezborodko

87'

R. Boudebouz← A. Nordin

90+1'

M. Zaderaka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OleksandriaSaint

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots7

4Corners1

17Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots7

5On Target2

6Off Target4

3Blocked1

10Inside Box2

4Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

362Total Passes361

252Accurate Passes262

70%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

UEFA Europa League: Oleksandria 2–2 Saint Etienne

Oleksandria and Saint Etienne drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa League on November 7, 2019.

Goals: W. Khazri (24' pen), M. Camara (72'), D. Bezborodko (84'), M. Zaderaka (90+1').

Oleksandria controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Arena L'viv in L'viv.

Oleksandria vs Saint Etienne — UEFA Europa League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa League: Oleksandria 2–2 Saint Etienne