Saint Etienne 0–3 Nice: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Saint Etienne

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Nice

A. Delort 83'

C. Stengs 54'

A. Gouiri 15'

9/25/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Saint Etienne39%

×Draw27%

Nice34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchNice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.19

Saint Etienne

1.31

Nice

1.19

Saint Etienne creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 130 away

1.44

creates per match

1.09

1.28

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Saint Etienne

1.44

Nice

1.09

allows per match

Saint Etienne

1.28

Nice

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Nice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Nice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

66%

Saint Etienne or Nice

73%

Draw or Nice

61%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

18%

Nice wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

73%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

38%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

14%

Nice 1+ goals

70%

Nice 2+ goals

33%

Nice 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

54%

Nice (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

Nice away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.44 + Nice defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nice attack 1.09 + Saint Etienne defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

39%

level

27%

Nice scores more

34%

Saint Etienne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

W. Benítez

Nice · G

7.9

Match Events

15'

A. Gouiri

45'

Hassane Kamara

46'

A. Nordin← J. Krasso

46'

R. Boudebouz← D. Bouanga

54'

C. Stengs↳ K. Thuram-Ulien

62'

Wahbi KhazriPenalty cancelled

66'

A. Aouchiche← R. Hamouma

67'

Z. Youssouf← Y. Neyou Noupa

69'

P. Rosario← A. Gouiri

78'

E. Guessand← K. Thuram-Ulien

79'

I. Ramírez← W. Khazri

79'

J. Lotomba← C. Stengs

79'

L. Da Cunha← H. Kamara

83'

A. Delort↳ L. Da Cunha

89'

J. Todibo← Y. Atal

90'

Jean-Clair Todibo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaintNice

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots14

2Corners9

9Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots14

6On Target9

2Off Target4

3Blocked1

5Inside Box11

6Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

496Total Passes332

386Accurate Passes233

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2