Nice 2–1 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats

Nice

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Saint Etienne

M. Sanson 72'

Z. Diallo 11'

Z. Davitashvili 45' (pen)

12/21/2025

Coupe de France · Round of 64Allianz Riviera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nice31%

×Draw25%

Saint Etienne44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiceExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.59

Nice

1.29

Saint Etienne

1.59

Saint Etienne creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.78

creates per match

2.07

1.11

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Nice

1.78

Saint Etienne

2.07

allows per match

Nice

1.11

Saint Etienne

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nice+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nice ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nice or draw

56%

Nice or Saint Etienne

75%

Draw or Saint Etienne

69%

Winning margin

Nice wins by 2+

13%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Nice 1+ goals

72%

Nice 2+ goals

37%

Nice 3+ goals

14%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

80%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

47%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Nice (draw refunded)

41%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nice at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nice attack 1.78 + Saint Etienne defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.29

Saint Etienne attack 2.07 + Nice defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nice scores more

31%

level

25%

Saint Etienne scores more

44%

Saint Etienne at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Larsonneur

Saint Etienne · G

8.3

Match Events

11'

Z. Diallo↳ J. Clauss

45'

Z. DavitashviliPenalty

55'

Benjamin Old

61'

Mahmoud Jaber

63'

T. Gouveia← T. Ndombele

63'

B. Nguene← Z. Diallo

72'

M. Sanson

77'

N. El Jamali← P. Eymard

78'

I. Miladinovic← F. Tardieu

82'

G. Bernardeau← S. Diop

87'

Morgan Sanson

90+1'

Mohamed-Ali Cho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiceSaint

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots17

5Corners0

12Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots17

6On Target5

1Off Target7

1Blocked5

8Inside Box8

0Outside Box9

Passing

36%Possession64%

400Total Passes724

325Accurate Passes658

81%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1