Saint Etienne 0–4 Monaco: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Saint Etienne

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Monaco

K. Diatta 76'

S. Diop 64'

A. Tchouaméni 55'

S. Jovetić 13'

3/19/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Saint Etienne38%

×Draw25%

Monaco37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchMonaco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.41

Saint Etienne

1.44

Monaco

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 123 away

1.44

creates per match

1.53

1.28

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Saint Etienne

1.44

Monaco

1.53

allows per match

Saint Etienne

1.28

Monaco

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Monaco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Monaco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

63%

Saint Etienne or Monaco

75%

Draw or Monaco

62%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

18%

Monaco wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

76%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

42%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

18%

Monaco 1+ goals

76%

Monaco 2+ goals

41%

Monaco 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

51%

Monaco (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

Monaco away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.45 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.44 + Monaco defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Monaco attack 1.53 + Saint Etienne defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

38%

level

25%

Monaco scores more

37%

Saint Etienne at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Tchouaméni

Monaco · M

9.3

Match Events

13'

S. Jovetić↳ A. Tchouaméni

38'

Stevan Jovetić

44'

Benoît Badiashile

46'

C. Abi← M. Trauco

55'

A. Tchouaméni↳ A. Golovin

60'

Z. Youssouf← R. Boudebouz

64'

S. Diop

66'

Fàbregas← S. Diop

67'

A. Modeste← Y. Neyou Noupa

68'

M. Rivera← W. Khazri

76'

K. Diatta← A. Golovin

76'

W. Ben Yedder← S. Jovetić

76'

K. Diatta↳ Fàbregas

81'

A. Moueffek← D. Bouanga

83'

C. Matsima← B. Badiashile

84'

F. Ballo← Caio Henrique

90'

Anthony Modeste

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaintMonaco

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots15

2Corners6

7Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots15

3On Target4

2Off Target7

4Blocked4

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box8

Passing

40%Possession60%

381Total Passes580

282Accurate Passes485

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1