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Monaco vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 1 2026

Monaco
Monaco
CANC
00:00
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
3/15/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade Louis II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Monaco49%
×Draw24%
Saint Etienne27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monaco
1.70
Saint Etienne
1.19

Monaco creates 43% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 87 away

creates per match

Monaco
1.86
Saint Etienne
1.10

allows per match

Monaco
1.28
Saint Etienne
1.53

finishing

Monaco+0.00on par
Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monaco ↓

Saint Etienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Monaco or draw
73%
Monaco or Saint Etienne
76%
Draw or Saint Etienne
51%

Winning margin

Monaco wins by 2+
26%
Saint Etienne wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Monaco 1+ goals
82%
Monaco 2+ goals
51%
Monaco 3+ goals
24%
Saint Etienne 1+ goals
70%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
33%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Monaco (draw refunded)
65%
Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monaco at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 123 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monaco attack 1.86 + Saint Etienne defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Saint Etienne attack 1.10 + Monaco defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Monaco scores more
49%
level
24%
Saint Etienne scores more
27%

Monaco at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Monaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Monaco face Saint Etienne (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with Monaco hosting Saint Etienne. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Monaco host Saint Etienne at Stade Louis II.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.