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Saint Etienne vs Le Havre — Ligue 2 2018

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 0
Le Havre
Le Havre
Y. Kitala 89'
C. Opéri 84', 80'
V. Lekhal 64'
N. Alioui 56'
A. Sangante 51'
8/20/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Saint Etienne42%
×Draw27%
Le Havre31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.36
Le Havre
1.11

Saint Etienne creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 94 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.77
Le Havre
1.18

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.05
Le Havre
0.96

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Le Havre+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Le Havre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
69%
Saint Etienne or Le Havre
73%
Draw or Le Havre
58%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
20%
Le Havre wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
74%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
39%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
16%
Le Havre 1+ goals
67%
Le Havre 2+ goals
30%
Le Havre 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
58%
Le Havre (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Le Havre away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.77 + Le Havre defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.36

Le Havre attack 1.18 + Saint Etienne defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
42%
level
27%
Le Havre scores more
31%

Saint Etienne at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
C. OpériLe HavreLe Havre · D
9.3

Match Events

22'
Lenny Pintor
27'
Anthony Briançon
31'
Anthony Briançon
31'
Anthony Briançon
37'
Jimmy Giraudon
37'
Mathieu Cafaro
41'
M. Nadé← L. Pintor
43'
Amir Richardson
46'
Y. Maçon← Gabriel Silva
46'
S. Sow← L. Mouton
51'
A. Sangante↳ N. Alioui
56'
N. Alioui↳ Y. Kitala
61'
J. Thiaré← N. Alioui
61'
A. Ba← A. Richardson
63'
B. Bouchouari← J. Giraudon
64'
V. Lekhal
66'
Etienne Green
68'
N. Raveyre← V. Lobry
68'
Q. Cornette← J. Casimir
68'
S. Kumbedi← O. El Hajjam
74'
E. Mahmoud← V. Lekhal
80'
C. Opéri↳ J. Thiaré
84'
C. Opéri↳ Y. Kitala
87'
Christopher Operi
89'
Y. Kitala↳ S. Kumbedi

Possession

36%Saint

Shots

6Saint

Pass accuracy

47%Saint

Statistics

SaintLe
Overview
36%Possession64%
6Total Shots17
5Corners8
9Fouls12
Shots
6Total Shots17
1On Target8
2Off Target8
3Blocked1
3Inside Box9
3Outside Box8
Passing
36%Possession64%
292Total Passes510
234Accurate Passes463
80%Pass Accuracy91%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls12
4Yellow Cards2
3Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Le Havre

Le Havre beat Saint Etienne 6-0 in Ligue 2 on August 20, 2022.

Goals: A. Sangante (51'), N. Alioui (56'), V. Lekhal (64'), C. Opéri (80', 84'), Y. Kitala (89').

Le Havre controlled possession (64%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.