Le Havre 2–2 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats

Le Havre

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Saint Etienne

V. Lekhal 66' (pen)

N. Alioui 58'

J. Krasso 85'

K. Bamba 68'

3/18/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade Océane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Le Havre37%

×Draw28%

Saint Etienne34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Le HavreExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.13

Le Havre

1.19

Saint Etienne

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 55 away

1.15

creates per match

1.33

0.93

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Le Havre

1.15

Saint Etienne

1.33

allows per match

Le Havre

0.93

Saint Etienne

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Le Havre+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Havre ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Le Havre or draw

66%

Le Havre or Saint Etienne

72%

Draw or Saint Etienne

63%

Winning margin

Le Havre wins by 2+

16%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Le Havre 1+ goals

70%

Le Havre 2+ goals

33%

Le Havre 3+ goals

12%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

68%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

31%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Le Havre (draw refunded)

52%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Havre at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 99 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Havre attack 1.15 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Le Havre defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Le Havre scores more

37%

level

28%

Saint Etienne scores more

34%

Le Havre at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Le Havre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

K. Bamba

Saint Etienne · F

7.9

Match Events

32'

Victor Lobry

47'

Quentin Cornette

58'

N. Alioui↳ A. Richardson

60'

J. Thiaré← Q. Cornette

61'

Anthony Briançon

63'

M. Cafaro← S. Sow

66'

V. LekhalPenalty

68'

K. Bamba↳ N. Nkounkou

71'

Jamal Thiaré

72'

I. Wadji← V. Lobry

74'

A. Joujou← A. Richardson

74'

79'

82'

85'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeSaint

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots14

2Corners9

11Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots14

2On Target5

7Off Target5

0Blocked4

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

281Total Passes387

196Accurate Passes305

70%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides5

Ligue 2: Le Havre 2–2 Saint Etienne

Le Havre and Saint Etienne drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on March 18, 2023.

Goals: N. Alioui (58'), V. Lekhal (66' pen), K. Bamba (68'), J. Krasso (85').

Saint Etienne controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Océane in Le Havre.

Le Havre vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Le Havre 2–2 Saint Etienne