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Saint Etienne vs Auxerre — Ligue 1 2026

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Auxerre
Auxerre
Z. Davitashvili 86', 54', 15'
T. Bair 74'
10/5/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Saint Etienne49%
×Draw25%
Auxerre26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.63
Auxerre
1.13

Saint Etienne creates 44% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 54 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.44
Auxerre
0.98

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.28
Auxerre
1.81

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Auxerre+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Auxerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
74%
Saint Etienne or Auxerre
75%
Draw or Auxerre
51%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
26%
Auxerre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
80%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
48%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
22%
Auxerre 1+ goals
68%
Auxerre 2+ goals
31%
Auxerre 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
65%
Auxerre (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

Auxerre away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.44 + Auxerre defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

Auxerre attack 0.98 + Saint Etienne defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
49%
level
25%
Auxerre scores more
26%

Saint Etienne at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
Z. DavitashviliSaint EtienneSaint Etienne · F
9.5

Match Events

15'
Z. Davitashvili↳ L. Pétrot
35'
Elisha Owusu
47'
Mickael Nade
54'
Z. Davitashvili↳ I. Sissoko
60'
P. Joly← G. Osho
60'
G. Perrin← A. Onaiwu
61'
T. Bair← K. Hoever
67'
Pierre Ekwah
70'
M. Cafaro← B. Old
74'
T. Bair↳ L. Sinayoko
78'
L. Mouton← A. Moueffek
78'
L. Stassin← I. Sissoko
78'
B. Bouchouari← M. Amougou
79'
Léo Pétrot
83'
R. Raveloson← E. Owusu
83'
F. Ayé← L. Sinayoko
86'
Z. Davitashvili↳ L. Stassin
88'
F. Tardieu← L. Pétrot

Possession

42%Saint

Shots

13Saint

Pass accuracy

49%Saint

Statistics

SaintAuxerre
Overview
42%Possession58%
13Total Shots11
2.73Expected Goals (xG)0.79
5Corners4
13Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots11
5On Target3
5Off Target5
3Blocked3
11Inside Box7
2Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
358Total Passes490
273Accurate Passes391
76%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
-1.67Goals Prevented-1.67
Discipline
13Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Auxerre

Saint Etienne beat Auxerre 3-1 in Ligue 1 on October 5, 2024.

Goals: Z. Davitashvili (15', 54', 86'), T. Bair (74').

Auxerre controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.