Auxerre 1–1 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Auxerre

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Saint Etienne

H. Traoré 27'

L. Stassin 45'

1/24/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Auxerre41%

×Draw27%

Saint Etienne32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuxerreExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.14

Auxerre

1.33

Saint Etienne

1.14

Auxerre creates 17% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 87 away

1.13

creates per match

1.10

1.18

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Auxerre

1.13

Saint Etienne

1.10

allows per match

Auxerre

1.18

Saint Etienne

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auxerre+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auxerre ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Auxerre or draw

68%

Auxerre or Saint Etienne

73%

Draw or Saint Etienne

59%

Winning margin

Auxerre wins by 2+

19%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Auxerre 1+ goals

74%

Auxerre 2+ goals

38%

Auxerre 3+ goals

15%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

68%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

32%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Auxerre (draw refunded)

56%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auxerre at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.18 · 55 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auxerre attack 1.13 + Saint Etienne defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Saint Etienne attack 1.10 + Auxerre defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Auxerre scores more

41%

level

27%

Saint Etienne scores more

32%

Auxerre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Auxerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

H. Traoré

Auxerre · M

8.2

Match Events

27'

45'

59'

68'

68'

68'

83'

84'

85'

85'

I. Miladinović← P. Ekwah

87'

F. Ayé← H. Traoré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AuxerreSaint

Overview

37%Possession63%

11Total Shots8

0.84Expected Goals (xG)1.17

3Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target3

5Off Target2

1Blocked3

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

352Total Passes615

266Accurate Passes513

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.38Goals Prevented0.38

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3