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Saint Eloi Lupopo vs Motema Pembe — Ligue 1 2019

Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
6/16/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo45%
×Draw30%
Motema Pembe25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.19
Motema Pembe
0.81

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 83 away

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.43
Motema Pembe
1.14

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.48
Motema Pembe
0.94

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par
Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

Motema Pembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw
75%
Saint Eloi Lupopo or Motema Pembe
70%
Draw or Motema Pembe
55%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
20%
Motema Pembe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
70%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
33%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
12%
Motema Pembe 1+ goals
56%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
19%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
64%
Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
45%
level
30%
Motema Pembe scores more
25%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Eloi Lupopo vs Motema Pembe

Saint Eloi Lupopo beat Motema Pembe 1-0 in Ligue 1 on June 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba in Lubumbashi.