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Motema Pembe vs Saint Eloi Lupopo — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
FT
5 – 1
Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
5/30/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Motema Pembe33%
×Draw28%
Saint Eloi Lupopo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
1.09
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 98 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.49

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.77

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

Saint Eloi Lupopo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
62%
Motema Pembe or Saint Eloi Lupopo
72%
Draw or Saint Eloi Lupopo
67%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
13%
Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
66%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
30%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
10%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
70%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
33%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
47%
Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.09

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.49 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
33%
level
28%
Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
38%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Motema Pembe 5–1 Saint Eloi Lupopo

Motema Pembe beat Saint Eloi Lupopo 5-1 in Ligue 1 on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.