Saint Eloi Lupopo 1–0 Malole: Result & Stats

Saint Eloi Lupopo

FT

1 – 0

Malole

3/6/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade de la Victoire

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo63%

×Draw25%

Malole13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint Eloi LupopoExpected goals in this matchMalole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.56

Saint Eloi Lupopo

1.59

Malole

0.56

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 184% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 25 away

1.43

creates per match

0.64

0.48

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo

1.43

Malole

0.64

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo

0.48

Malole

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Malole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

Malole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw

87%

Saint Eloi Lupopo or Malole

75%

Draw or Malole

37%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+

34%

Malole wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals

80%

Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals

47%

Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals

21%

Malole 1+ goals

43%

Malole 2+ goals

11%

Malole 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)

83%

Malole (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

Malole away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + Malole defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

Malole attack 0.64 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more

63%

level

25%

Malole scores more

13%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff