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Malole vs Saint Eloi Lupopo — Ligue 1 2019

Malole
Malole
FT
0 – 1
Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
12/1/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade des Jeunes de Katoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Malole28%
×Draw31%
Saint Eloi Lupopo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malole
0.84
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.10

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 98 away

creates per match

Malole
0.92
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.49

allows per match

Malole
0.72
Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.77

finishing

Malole+0.00on par
Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malole ↓

Saint Eloi Lupopo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Malole or draw
59%
Malole or Saint Eloi Lupopo
69%
Draw or Saint Eloi Lupopo
72%

Winning margin

Malole wins by 2+
9%
Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Malole 1+ goals
57%
Malole 2+ goals
21%
Malole 3+ goals
5%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
67%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
30%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Malole (draw refunded)
40%
Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malole at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malole attack 0.92 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.49 + Malole defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malole scores more
28%
level
31%
Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
41%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malole vs Saint Eloi Lupopo

Saint Eloi Lupopo beat Malole 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Jeunes de Katoka in Kananga.