Saif 1–0 NoFeL Sporting Club: Result & Stats

Saif

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NoFeL Sporting Club

4/6/2019

Premier League · Round 11Mymensingh Stadium (Mymensingh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Saif50%

×Draw24%

NoFeL Sporting Club26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaifExpected goals in this matchNoFeL Sporting Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.21

Saif

1.75

NoFeL Sporting Club

1.21

Saif creates 45% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 12 away

1.74

creates per match

1.08

1.33

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Saif

1.74

NoFeL Sporting Club

1.08

allows per match

Saif

1.33

NoFeL Sporting Club

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saif+0.00on par

NoFeL Sporting Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saif ↓

NoFeL Sporting Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Saif or draw

74%

Saif or NoFeL Sporting Club

76%

Draw or NoFeL Sporting Club

50%

Winning margin

Saif wins by 2+

27%

NoFeL Sporting Club wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Saif 1+ goals

83%

Saif 2+ goals

52%

Saif 3+ goals

25%

NoFeL Sporting Club 1+ goals

70%

NoFeL Sporting Club 2+ goals

34%

NoFeL Sporting Club 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Saif (draw refunded)

65%

NoFeL Sporting Club (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saif at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

NoFeL Sporting Club away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saif attack 1.74 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

NoFeL Sporting Club attack 1.08 + Saif defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Saif scores more

50%

level

24%

NoFeL Sporting Club scores more

26%

Saif at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff