NoFeL Sporting Club 0–3 Saif: Result & Stats

NoFeL Sporting Club

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Saif

7/23/2019

Premier League · Round 24Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

NoFeL Sporting Club20%

×Draw21%

Saif59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NoFeL Sporting ClubExpected goals in this matchSaif

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.04

NoFeL Sporting Club

1.10

Saif

2.04

Saif creates 85% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 37 away

0.83

creates per match

2.32

1.75

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

NoFeL Sporting Club

0.83

Saif

2.32

allows per match

NoFeL Sporting Club

1.75

Saif

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NoFeL Sporting Club+0.00on par

Saif+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NoFeL Sporting Club ↓

Saif →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

NoFeL Sporting Club or draw

41%

NoFeL Sporting Club or Saif

79%

Draw or Saif

80%

Winning margin

NoFeL Sporting Club wins by 2+

7%

Saif wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

NoFeL Sporting Club 1+ goals

67%

NoFeL Sporting Club 2+ goals

30%

NoFeL Sporting Club 3+ goals

10%

Saif 1+ goals

87%

Saif 2+ goals

60%

Saif 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

NoFeL Sporting Club (draw refunded)

25%

Saif (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NoFeL Sporting Club at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Saif away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NoFeL Sporting Club attack 0.83 + Saif defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.10

Saif attack 2.32 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

NoFeL Sporting Club scores more

20%

level

21%

Saif scores more

59%

Saif at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Saif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff